[Southsider2k12]

http://www.tribstar.com/opinion_columns/lo..._134102623.html

Brian Howey: Revenge of the Ex-Mayors! What the city elections tell us

By BBrian Howey
The Tribune-Star

INDIANAPOLIS — In the 1999 mayoral elections, Indiana witnessed titanic battles for control of its big cities: Indianapolis, Fort Wayne and Evansville.

In 2003, more than 30 incumbents lost. That may well have been a precursor of change that would sweep the state over the next three years (i.e. Mitch Daniels over Gov. Joe Kernan, Brent Waltz over Sen. Larry Borst, Greg Walker over Senate President Pro Tempore Bob Garton, Pat Bauer over Speaker Brian Bosma) that completely overhauled Indiana’s executive and legislative leadership.

While there is a property tax crisis still lurking (despite the coming legislative rebate), gas prices are expected to push the $4 range, and there is an unpopular war, there are significant differences between 2007 and 2003 or even 1999. A number of mayors — Indianapolis’s Bart Peterson, Evansville’s Jonathan Weinzapfel, Columbus’s Fred Armstrong, Terre Haute’s Kevin Burke, South Bend’s Stephen Luecke, Gary’s Rudy Clay, Hammond’s Tom McDermott Jr., East Chicago’s George Pabey, Michigan City’s Chuck Oberlie — appear to be either cinches or big favorites in November. This is either a consolidation of power, as in the case of Clay, Pabey, Burke, Oberlie and McDermott, or a continuation of a legacy as with Peterson (heading toward a third term) and Luecke (in office for a decade).

The big story line out of the municipal primaries was that a number of incumbent mayors lost to former mayors: James Garner to Doug England in New Albany; Rob Waiz to Tom Galligan in Jeffersonville; Al Nipp to Sherman Boles at New Castle; Jim Bullard to John Burkhart in Seymour.

Other incumbents lost as well, most notably, Kokomo Mayor Matt McKillip, who was defeated in a landslide to Councilman Rick Hamilton. The Kokomo race was one of two brutal primary battles (Gayle Van Sesson’s defeat of Crown Point Mayor Dan Klein was the other).

It was contrasted by a Republican primary in Fort Wayne where Matt Kelty used a grassroots network of social conservatives to defeat Allen County Commissioner Nelson Peters, who had more money and the endorsement of nearly every Republican officeholder above the township level. In Fort Wayne and Kokomo, the establishment GOP had sided with Hamilton and Peters. While Peters and Kelty quickly hugged and agreed to fight the common enemy (former Councilman Tom Henry) next November, in Kokomo, McKillip went to Democrat nominee Greg Goodnight’s party and said, “I came here to visit the winners.” Little wonder there was hard feelings in the City of Firsts. The Howard County Republican chairman had compared McKillip to Hitler. Kokomo is a great potential Democratic pick up.

In all of these incumbent losses, there was a common thread: The incumbent had personal conflicts with their councils and/or political establishments. McKillip and Garner openly feuded with their city councils.

Other incumbents to lose included long-time Decatur Mayor Fred Isch, Hobart Mayor Linda Buzinec to former police chief Brian Snedecor, and Alexandria Mayor Steve Skaggs to Building Commissioner Don Swegman.

Of this grouping, the Crown Point race was just nasty, with Lake County GOP Chairman John Curley admonishing both campaigns after a final week of scandalous e-mails that left the race in the gutter.

Buzinec lost, in part, because of a letter she wrote on behalf of convicted Indiana Democratic Chairman Peter Manous, asking the judge for leniency. The Millrights and other unions were upset because Manous and company had pilfered carpenter union funds. Buzinec had been a ranking Indiana Democratic Central Committee member.

But it would be hard to make the case that there is a significant “anti-incumbency” afoot, despite all the elements swirling around that could put folks in a throw-the-bums out mentality. Recent primary cycles have seen a similar number of mayors jettisoned. People tend to get personal about mayors and governors (as opposed to prosecutors and U.S. senators: They don’t have to like them; they just want them to be effective). Hoosiers may get sick of their mayoral voices or their smirking faces and get ticked off if the garbage gets picked up late.

Burke’s victory is noteworthy. He did not join the pantheon of defeated mayors (Pete Chalos, Jim Jenkins and Judy Anderson) who lost in the last three Democratic primaries. Terre Haute and Vigo County have developed a 20th Century reputation for backing the presidential winner, so there may be a message when voters there decided to stick with the incumbent.

Another conspicuous victory was Monticello’s Mayor Bob Fox, who won a Democratic primary despite a 39-count theft indictment related to his office.

The key battleground cities in November will be Kokomo (Hamilton vs. Goodnight), Elkhart (Republican Jim Pettit vs. Democrat Dick Moore), Anderson (Republican Mayor Kevin Smith vs. Kris Ockomon, LaPorte (former mayor Kathy Chroback vs. GOP Mayor Leigh Morris), Madison (Republican Mayor Al Huntington vs. Tim Armstrong), Muncie (Democrat James Mansfield Jr. vs. Republican Sharon McShurley), and, of course, the Kelty-Henry showdown in Fort Wayne.

That is exactly what happens when you add



and

[JHeath]

Too bad our Republicans haven't found a viable candidate to run for Mayor this fall...I wonder if there's any chance they'll even try?

[Ang]

I think I am going to move back to Indiana and run for Mayor as an Independent.

What do you think?

[JHeath]

I think I am going to move back to Indiana and run for Mayor as an Independent.

What do you think?

I'm behind you all the way, Ang!

[Southsider2k12]

As much as I would like to see it, judging by the results of the primary, someone would have to be suicidal to take up the Republican banner this fall. The only potential draw would be the fact that turnout in the primaries was so low, there exsists a pool of voters who could more easily be convinced to vote for something new. The problem would be making them decide to go to the polls in the first place. If someone could get in and pick up most of the 49% of votes that Oberlie didn't get, plus get participation from 20 to say 25 or 30%, it is possible to win.

That being said, the odds of it happening are miniscule in Michigan City. The candidate would have to have instant name recognition, not to mention a really appealing personality to convince a lot of either apathetic or disgruntaled voters to get off of their duffs and hit the polls. I don't see it happening.

[JHeath]

The rumor around the Dem party is that Jim Powers is considering a run for the Mayor's office. Any truth to this that anyone knows of?

[Southsider2k12]

I have not heard that... Forgive my lack of knowledge, but would he run as an R or an I?

[Max Main]

Who are the leading Republicans in town who could even have a shot?

[JHeath]

I have not heard that... Forgive my lack of knowledge, but would he run as an R or an I?

As an "R".