[Southsider2k12]

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Climatologist says Indiana could face tough winter

INDIANAPOLIS | Indiana residents who slogged through last year's icy, snowy winter may be in store for a repeat of that icy blast in the coming months if forecasters tracking global weather patterns are correct.

Associate state climatologist Ken Scheeringa said meteorologists expect the periodic cooling of the central Pacific Ocean that's known as La Nina to return and bring another severe winter to Indiana and the rest of the Midwest.

Last year, La Nina combined with a warming of the ocean around Iceland and Greenland called the North Atlantic Oscillation to make Indiana's winter particularly long and cold.

Scheeringa tells The Indianapolis Star that although it's still unclear, it appears those two weather patterns may both occur again this winter, delivering an extra brutal winter blast.

"When they join forces, they make us very miserable," said Scheeringa, who works with the Indiana State Climate Office.

He said the North Atlantic warming is hard to predict, but if it does return forecasters will see evidence of it in the next couple of months.

If so, he said Indiana residents would face an even more severe winter of biting cold, freezing rain, snow and perhaps even a blizzard like the one that hit central Indiana in February.

Michael Koch, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, said he also sees the La Nina pattern playing a major role in the forecast for the state again this winter, driving storm systems — and above-normal precipitation — farther north into Indiana.

The La Nina weather pattern utilizes the jet stream to power north, he said.

From December 2010 through last March, the average temperature in the Indianapolis metropolitan area was the lowest of the past five winters and precipitation was the highest of the past three winters, according to National Weather Service data.

Two winters ago, Indiana was affected by El Niño, in which the central Pacific Ocean warms at least 1 degree above normal. That brought the state a milder winter, as might be expected by that temperature fluctuation in the central area of the Pacific, he said.

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[Southsider2k12]

http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/8033118..._aVyCk.facebook

Enjoy the nice weather while you can.

Winter’s going to clobber Chicago again, hitting us with colder than normal temperatures and nearly twice the normal amount of snowfall.

That’s according to long-range forecasters at AccuWeather.com.

“People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter,” long-range meteorologist Josh Nagelberg said.

Forecasters also predict that the Chicago area, not New York, will endure the worst winter in the nation this season.

“The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.,” said Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.

AccuWeather forecasts 50 to 58 inches of snow for Chicago, in line with the 56 inches we got last season. But snowfall during a normal winter is closer to 30.2 inches.

And temperatures will be 2 to 3 degrees below normal, also in line with last winter, when it was 2.4 degrees below normal.

However, Pastelok said snowfalls will be more frequent and less heavy — at least early in the season — and will be followed by intense overnight cold snaps.

Later, in January and February, we can expect it to warm up somewhat, but also expect bigger snowfalls.

Pastelok’s advice? Don’t wait to break out the cold-weather gear.

“I think we get a nice warm six to 10 days going on here in October, everyone’s spoiled and then all of a sudden, boom, it turns around. Especially mid-November. I think we start getting cold fast,” he said.

[Southsider2k12]

Tom Skilling
Many of you have asked about the winter forecast which is getting such coverage today. That above normal snowfall is possible shouldn't surprise anyone whose been following this page or our Chicago Weather Center blog. La Nina's returned and one of its attributes is above normal snowfall as we've discussed here. I'd stop short of assigning specific numbers to potential seasonal snowfall or to the number of snowstorms which might occur. There just isn't a lot of skill in getting to that level of specificity. Having said that, the notion that above normal snowfall may lie ahead of us wouldn't be surprising at all nor would the chance of some active storms.

[MC Born & Raised]

"Indiana could face tough winter" is a bit like saying "Jay Cutler could get sacked"

[bandaid19]

"Indiana could face tough winter" is a bit like saying "Jay Cutler could get sacked"

Is there "like" button on this thing?

[Southsider2k12]

"Indiana could face tough winter" is a bit like saying "Jay Cutler could get sacked"

Twice as much snow is the difference between the Panthers coming after you and the Giants coming after you...

[diggler]

I'm looking forward to it.