[Southsider2k12]

http://www.nwitimes.com/news/state-and-reg..._medium=twitter

By RICK CALLAHAN Associated Press Writer

Weather conditions for Northwest Indiana will remain mostly dry for the next 10 days, according to multiple forecasts.

There is a chance for some passing thunderstorms Sunday, according to qwikcast.com and weather.com. The next possibilities for rain returns Thursday and Friday. Those are also forecasted as scattered showers.

The rest of the week is likely going to be sunny and in the 80s and 90s.

WESTVILLE | John Coulter hasn't seen such a dry spring in the more than 50 years he has farmed.

Coulter, 72, is praying for rain.

The local farmer, owner of Coulters' Produce, said the lack of rainfall in the area is making him worry about the health of the corn and soybean crops that are growing for fall harvest.

"If it continues like this for another month there won't be much of a yield," he said.

Indiana's drought is intensifying after weeks of scant rainfall that have left cropland parched, raised the risk of wildfires and sent homeowners scrambling to water lawns fading from green to brown.

The federal government's U.S. Drought Monitor map updated Thursday shows nearly 90 percent of Indiana is now abnormally dry. A moderate drought covers about 40 percent of the state, mainly northern Indiana and the state's southwestern corner — a portion of which is experiencing a severe drought, the map indicates.

Associate state climatologist Ken Scheeringa said a weather system that pushed across Indiana on Monday delivered little or no rain to parched areas. The next good chance of rain is a week away and temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s in the coming days, he said.

"We'll be lucky to get rain in the next week. It's very distant," Scheeringa said Thursday.

Coulter is hoping for a just a couple of inches once a week for the next five weeks to bring him through the season.

"Thats really asking for a lot," he said. "Because the way the weather is right now it's been like August weather."

Scheeringa said the lack of rain combined with sunny, warm conditions is forcing more moisture out of the ground each day, drying up fields and turning lawns brown not just in Indiana but surrounding states as well.

"There's always this balancing act between how much rain comes into the soil and how much leaves through evaporation. And right now evaporation is winning," Scheeringa said.

Three Northern Indiana counties — Marshall, Noble and Steuben — have imposed countywide burn bans due to the risk of wildfires, and others could soon follow.

Noble County's fire departments have battled about a dozen fires in the past week in tinder-dry fields suffering from a 6-inch rainfall deficit, said Kendallville Fire Chief Mike Riehm.

"It's just too parched right now. There's a great danger of wind-whipped fires getting out of control and moving really fast," he said.

Indiana's drought has hit the state's far southwestern corner the hardest. An area covering all or parts of eight southwestern counties is in the midst of a severe drought, stung by a 10-inch rainfall deficit for the year.

Vanderburgh County farmer Chris Winiger said that from March through the end of May only about an inch of rain fell on his land.

Monday's storm system brought his fields between two-tenths and a half-inch of rain, not enough to make much difference to his 800 acres of corn and 800 acres of soybeans, he said.

"It was just enough to give us hope for a while, but it wasn't a drought reliever," Winiger said. "We're hurting for rain."

Purdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen said even if rain comes soon some of Indiana's hard-hit corn and soybean fields will still face reduced yields.

But he said that overall most of Indiana's top crops of corn and soybeans are faring relatively well, in part because the dry spring allowed farmers to finish planting weeks ahead of normal and crops are well established and deeply rooted.

"On a statewide basis it's not yet a serious issue. If it were to start raining soon I really do think we could come out of it in amazingly good shape," he said.

Nielsen said if the dry conditions persist for three weeks it would reduce corn yields because by then fields will be entering the critical tasseling and pollination period when ears of corn form.

Although the lingering drought is an economic concern for farmers, it's also on the minds of Indiana homeowners worried about their manicured lawns, which are stressed and browning.

At White's Ace Hardware on Indianapolis' northeast side, assistant manager John Blackwell said sales of oscillating sprinklers and soaker hoses have risen significantly in the past month.

"We're selling a ton of those," he said. "All you have to do is go outside and drive the neighborhoods and 99.9 percent of the grass is brown."

Coulter's farm covers 4,000 acres, but only about 90 are irrigated. Without rain, he's left to watching the sky with hope.

"Even a human being has to have water every day and (the produce crops) are a living thing just like a person," he said.

Times staff writer Lindsay Machak contributed to this report.

[Southsider2k12]

http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/newsi...+Dick%29#middle

June 14, 2012

News Release

West Lafayette, Ind. -- Drought conditions around Indiana took a turn for the worse with 88 percent of the state now affected by ongoing dry weather, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ DM_state.htm?IN,MW) released Thursday (June 14).

The Drought Monitor, a service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, is updated weekly and reflected conditions as of Tuesday (June 12).
Total Indiana land area affected by drought jumped 40 percent since the last Drought Monitor was released last week. Only a cluster of 11 counties in southeast Indiana, about 12 percent of the state, are not affected. Moderate drought has spread to cover about three-fourths of northern Indiana while most of central Indiana is considered abnormally dry. Five counties in southwestern Indiana are rated in severe drought.

The high-pressure system that has dominated the Midwest in recent weeks has prevented weather changes - including fronts bringing much-needed rain - from moving into the area, according to the Indiana State Climate Office (http://iclimate.org/index.asp) based at Purdue University. The next possibility for showers is sometime late next week, but state climatologist Dev Niyogi said soil is losing moisture at a rate faster than it can be replaced.

"We should not fall into false security if we get rain," Niyogi said. "Every passing day we are losing more moisture from the soil because of the growing crops. It will take time, conservation and much-needed rains to reverse."

Soybeans

More soybeans around the state are showing signs of stress, said Purdue Extension agronomist Shaun Casteel. "I'm seeing more plants flipping leaves over to reflect the sun," he said. "These plants can probably recover without too much damage if we get rain."

In areas of severe drought, leaves have started clamping down, meaning plants are going into survival mode.

Some fields have become islands where some plants have emerged and others haven't, Casteel said. "Late-planted beans in dry soil might still emerge with rainfall. However, if the seed has cracked open and the root emerged it could become a worst-case scenario."
Corn

After several weeks with little or no rain, the condition of the state's corn crop runs the gamut, said Purdue Extension agronomist Bob Nielsen.

Several areas of the state are under severe stress and, early in the growing season, Nielsen said there's already concern about the impact it will have on yield. Other areas around the state are not exhibiting drought symptoms.

"If we begin to get rain, the corn crop won't recover completely, but it will be better than we thought," Nielsen said.
More moderate temperatures since Memorial Day have helped, Nielsen said, but a return to hotter weather and continued drought could tip the scales.

"We're tip-toeing on the edge of something serious," he said. "Right now, it's wait-and-see; it could go either way."

Nielsen said the corn crop under the most stress is consistent with areas of severest drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor, including counties in southwestern, north central and northeastern Indiana.

Source: Purdue University

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Indiana drought worsening after scant rainfall

By Rick Callahan on June 14, 201

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Indiana's drought is intensifying after weeks of scant rainfall that have left cropland parched, raised the risk of wildfires and sent homeowners scrambling to water lawns fading from green to brown.

The federal government's U.S. Drought Monitor map updated Thursday shows nearly 90 percent of Indiana is now abnormally dry. A moderate drought covers about 40 percent of the state, mainly northern Indiana and the state's southwestern corner — a portion of which is experiencing a severe drought, the map indicates.

Associate state climatologist Ken Scheeringa said a weather system that pushed across Indiana on Monday delivered little or no rain to parched areas. The next good chance of rain is a week away and temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s in the coming days, he said.

"We'll be lucky to get rain in the next week. It's very distant," Scheeringa said Thursday.

He said the lack of rain combined with sunny, warm conditions is forcing more moisture out of the ground each day, drying up fields and turning lawns brown not just in Indiana but surrounding states as well.

"There's always this balancing act between how much rain comes into the soil and how much leaves through evaporation. And right now evaporation is winning," Scheeringa said.

Three northern Indiana counties — Marshall, Noble and Steuben — have imposed countywide burn bans due to the risk of wildfires, and others could soon follow.

Noble County's fire departments have battled about a dozen fires in the past week in tinder-dry fields suffering from a 6-inch rainfall deficit, said Kendallville Fire Chief Mike Riehm.

"It's just too parched right now. There's a great danger of wind-whipped fires getting out of control and moving really fast," he said.

Indiana's drought has hit the state's far southwestern corner the hardest. An area covering all or parts of eight southwestern counties is in the midst of a severe drought, stung by a 10-inch rainfall deficit for the year.

Vanderburgh County farmer Chris Winiger said that from March through the end of May only about an inch of rain fell on his land.

Monday's storm system brought his fields between two-tenths and a half-inch of rain, not enough to make much difference to his 800 acres of corn and 800 acres of soybeans, he said.

"It was just enough to give us hope for a while, but it wasn't a drought reliever," Winiger said. "We're hurting for rain."

He said if the drought persists for another two to four weeks he expects to face significant corn yield losses.

Purdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen said even if rain comes soon some of Indiana's hard-hit corn and soybean fields will still face reduced yields.

But he said that overall most of Indiana's top crops of corn and soybeans are faring relatively well, in part because the dry spring allowed farmers to finish planting weeks ahead of normal and crops are well established and deeply rooted.

"On a statewide basis it's not yet a serious issue. If it were to start raining soon I really do think we could come out of it in amazingly good shape," he said.

Nielsen said if the dry conditions persist for three weeks it would reduce corn yields because by then fields will be entering the critical tasseling and pollination period when ears of corn form.

Although the lingering drought is an economic concern for farmers, it's also on the minds of Indiana homeowners worried about their manicured lawns, which are stressed and browning.

At White's Ace Hardware on Indianapolis' northeast side, assistant manager John Blackwell said sales of oscillating sprinklers and soaker hoses have risen significantly in the past month.

"We're selling a ton of those," he said. "All you have to do is go outside and drive the neighborhoods and 99.9 percent of the grass is brown."

[diggler]

WHOA ! ITS RAINING IN WESTVILLE !!

[bandaid19]

It's rained here a few times (just S of New Buff), but for no more than 5 min. at a time... the garden is just sucking it in... hopefully we'll get something substantial?

[diggler]

Thunderstorms are still popping around here this afternoon and may continue tonite. Then its back into the oven for next next week. Could get a bit dicey around these parts.....especially heading into the 4th.

[bandaid19]

Had an outdoor gig tonight at Valpo that got cancelled... I think they were worried mostly about the lightning.. the sky got real dark REAL fast.. still a sever t-storm warning over there.

[Southsider2k12]

It was nice to get that second line of rain that lasted for a couple of hours. Hopefully that is the start of getting some regular rain here.

[diggler]

Indiana drought concern for farmers

This is one of earliest droughts in 25 years

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. | June 20, 2012

Indiana farmers and livestock producers still can recover from one of the worst droughts in more than two decades, but time is growing short, researchers say.

While one of the earliest onslaughts of extremely dry conditions in more than 20 years is drying out crop fields and forages, it's not yet time to hit the panic button, Purdue University researchers said Tuesday.

"Clearly, there are some truly severely stressed regions of the state," Bob Nielsen, Purdue corn specialist, said. "But if you look at the state as a whole, the corn has hung in there amazingly well."

Although dryness is not uncommon in Indiana in the summer, it is unusual for drought to hit in the spring, as it did this year soon after farmers planted corn and soybeans, researchers said.

"It is among the earliest onsets of severe, dry weather we've had in at least the last 25 years or so," Nielsen said.

Indiana has had less rain than normal because of continued high pressure and lack of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the state's primary source of moisture, the Indiana State Climate Office based at Purdue said.

It still is possible for the corn crop to produce yields close to trend, Nielsen said, but it would need widespread and timely rains now and for the remainder of the season.

"It's not a disaster yet. We still have opportunities to recover. There has been yield loss that we won't recover, but I don't think it has been dramatic yield loss," he said.

http://www.disasternews.net/news/article.php?articleid=4773

[Southsider2k12]

http://www.theindychannel.com/news/31212696/detail.html

INDIANAPOLIS -- The parched conditions are worsening for much Indiana, with a new report listing the state's southwestern corner in extreme drought and nearly 80 percent of the state in at least moderate drought.

The new U.S. Drought Monitor map released Thursday morning shows counties in the Evansville area with the driest conditions. A wide swath of the state from around Lafayette to north of Fort Wayne is show in severe drought.

More: Drought Map

More than 40 of Indiana's 92 counties have implemented open burning bans, with local officials worried about fires spreading quickly from tinder-dry grass and vegetation.

Much of the state has gone weeks without significant rain. The National Weather Service has recorded rainfall of less than one-tenth of an inch for June in Indianapolis and Fort Wayne through Wednesday.

There is a slight possibility of rain Thursday as a cold front moves through the state, but it's not expected to soak central Indiana.

[diggler]

Reminds me of the 88 drought scorcher. Farmers were lucky back then, because not only did they all receive $100,000 from the Fed to stay on their farms, but more importantly....the severe drought only lasted a year. The question now of course....is this time DIFFERENT ?

http://www.droughtoutlook.com/future.html

[Southsider2k12]

Tom Skilling
Heat and undependable rainfall is impacting area crops. USDA, in its weekly crop report, has 33% of IL's corn crop and 50% of the corn in IN either in "poor" or "very poor" shape. This, plus a look at the development of a "cap"--a rain-inhibiting warm air layer aloft later in the week which would thwart otherwise cooling t-storm development in Thursday and Friday's intense heat is covered on our feature graphic from our WGN Chicago Weather Center website today.

[diggler]

Now they're calling Indiana GROUND ZERO in the region's developing drought disaster:

http://www.agweb.com/USFR/

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Stunted corn plants in Hartford City, Ind., struggling to grow out of dry soil.

Heat in Midwest Dashes Hopes for a Bumper Corn Crop

By MONICA DAVEY
July 4, 2012

HARTFORD CITY, Ind. — Across a wide stretch of the Midwest, sweltering temperatures and a lack of rain are threatening what had been expected to be the nation’s largest corn crop in generations.

Already, some farmers in Illinois and Missouri have given up on parched and stunted fields, mowing them over. National experts say parts of five corn-growing states, including Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, are experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions. And in at least nine states, conditions in one-fifth to one-half of cornfields have been deemed poor or very poor, federal authorities reported this week, a notable shift from the high expectations of just a month ago.

Crop insurance agents and agricultural economists are watching closely, a few comparing the situation with the devastating drought of 1988, when corn yields shriveled significantly, while some farmers have begun alluding, unhappily, to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Far more is at stake in the coming pivotal days: with the brief, delicate phase of pollination imminent in many states, miles and miles of corn will rise or fall on whether rain soon appears and temperatures moderate.

“It all quickly went from ideal to tragic,” said Don Duvall, a farmer in Illinois who, in what was a virtually rainless June, has watched two of his cornfields dry up and die as others remain in some uncertain in-between.

“Every day that passes, more corn will be abandoned,” Mr. Duvall said. “But even if it starts raining now, there will not be that bumper crop of corn everyone talked about.”

For farmers, especially those without insurance, the pressure mounts, they say, with each check on the morning weather forecast, with every stifling walk through a cloudless field. But the worries have quickly spread: corn prices have risen on the Chicago Board of Trade in recent days on the likelihood of a smaller crop, as analysts weigh the broader prospect of rising prices for food and effects on ethanol production.

“You wake up every morning with that churning in your stomach,” said Eric Aulbach, a farmer here in central Indiana, who gazed out across a field of corn he ought not to be able to gaze across by now.

The plants are short, leaves curling unhappily and with a telltale pale yellow hue rising from stems. Down the road, another farmer’s cornfield is still more shrunken, looking like rows of houseplants better suited for a kitchen window.

Some experts are less pessimistic, saying the fate of the nation’s corn crop, the largest in the world, cannot be known until later in the summer, after pollination, when it is clear whether kernels or empty spaces fill the ears of corn and whether enough ears appear at all. They note that the driest, hottest conditions have steered clear of some crucial Corn Belt states, including Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and western Iowa, the nation’s most prolific corn producer. In those states, the crop appears healthy and strong — not to mention increasingly valuable. And while much of the nation’s corn is not protected by irrigation, some of it, especially in Nebraska and Kansas, is, though those areas have felt the effects of drought, too, requiring more water and, potentially, driving up costs.

“This is a moving target,” said Darrel L. Good, an emeritus professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “But what we know is this: There’s been some permanent and substantive yield reduction already, and we’re on the cusp, depending on the weather, of taking that down quite a bit more.”

In its most recent assessment, released Monday, the Department of Agriculture reported that 48 percent of corn crops nationally were in good or excellent condition, a drop from 56 percent of crops a week earlier. In some states, though, the circumstances were far worse. In Indiana, half of corn crops were designated poor or very poor, and in Illinois, another state among the nation’s top corn producers, only 26 percent of crops were considered good or excellent.

John Hawkins, a spokesman for the Illinois Farm Bureau, said those in the southernmost sections of his state “are close to or past that point of no return,” while elsewhere, “there’s a lot of praying; it’s hanging on by a thread.”

“These 100-degree temperatures are just sucking the life out of everything,” he said.

American farmers had high expectations for corn this year, planting 96.4 million acres of it — a number 5 percent more than the previous year. High prices and an expectation of strong returns made this year’s planting the largest corn acreage in 75 years. Those were heady times in farm country, with farmland prices rising on and on, even as the recovery moved sluggishly in other realms. An uncharacteristically warm March in the Midwest sent hopes still higher, allowing farmers to plant corn weeks earlier than usual. For some crops, including some cherries in Michigan and apples in Indiana, unexpected April frosts then caused damage, but the corn, said Randy Anderson, a farmer in Southern Illinois, went right along beautifully.

And then very little rain fell, and temperatures soared. By last week around corn country, scores of triple-digit heat records were being broken: Jefferson County, Mo., 111 degrees; Evansville, Ind., 107 degrees. That left corn, including Mr. Anderson’s crop, shriveling.

“We’re talking five-feet-tall corn with no ears, no shoots and no tassels,” he said. “It wears on your nerves to even look.”

For much of the region, the next few weeks — as the plants’ tassels shed pollen to fertilize the silks and create kernels — are crucial. The endless fields of soybeans are at risk in the Midwestern heat, too, though they are seen as more resilient and able to pollinate later.

But a stressed, withered corn plant may not pollinate at all. “This is a very narrow window for corn, and there’s little room for error,” said Brad Rippey, an agricultural meteorologist for the United States Department of Agriculture. “Whatever happens in that window, it is what it is — that cob is made or broken.”

By midday Wednesday, temperatures hovered in the 100s in St. Louis and Indianapolis. While some forecasts suggested relief in the form of lower temperatures in parts of the Midwest next week, some rain, but not the deluge many here say they need, was predicted.

“All we can do is hope and wait,” Mr. Aulbach said, lifting a handful of Indiana soil and trying to shape it in his fingers, only to watch it slip away, a dusty powder.

[diggler]

Yep, definitely looks like GROUND ZERO to me.

[diggler]

It was supposed to be the best corn harvest in decades, but now farmers fear a repeat of the 1988 drought that wiped out millions of acres of corn and caused billions in crop damage, the worst crop setback since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

http://abcn.ws/M93WqB

[diggler]

Area farmers battle hot, dry conditions

WNDU
Jul 06, 2012

The lack of rain and extreme heat is affecting everyone, especially farmers.

They need rain and cooler temperatures to help produce even a partial crop.

“We have quite a bit that looks like this,” said Ed Leininger, St. Joseph County farmer. “A rain doesn't do much good for this one, this is pretty much a total wipe out.”

Leininger has been farming since the 70's. He said some of his crops are already lost to this year’s weather conditions. “Anything short of a miracle I would be surprised if this does make anything.”

But the crops he is irrigating will make a yield. He also took News 16 through a productive field, one where the water table is higher. He said he looks for specifics when trying to find a good plant.

“Well this one is in pollination right now,” he said. “You see the silks are starting to turn brown and get the pollin off the tassles to come down on the silks and the brown silks will break off then and form a kernal eventually.”

Leininger said it’s not enough moisture for these corn plants.

“We are easily going through a quarter inch of water a day going through these plants and so a half inch lasts us two days,” he said.

Phil Sutton with the Purdue Extension in St. Joseph County said that the lack of moisture is just one of the stresses on the plants.

“Pollination can be thrown off because of these hot temperatures and the water stress on the plant and throw it out of kilter,” he said. “Once they get pollinated, if it is under extreme stress they will start aborting and say I can't fill those kernels.”

Leininger added, “It is just trying to do everything it can to stay alive to produce seed. I call it the dying mother syndrome, it starts sacrificing things so its children, its seeds can live.”

Leininger said farmers should be getting close to harvest when it sounds like that and it should be late September when they begin to see that, not July.

Leininger was happy about the early planting weather, but is worried now his fields need cooler temperatures and lots of rain soon..

“Pollination is the first step then we need rain to build the kernel size and fill out the kernels out it,” he said. ”We still need the rain to keep this thing going. There is not enough moisture in the ground to keep this thing going, the plants will start to canibalizing, you see them fire up from the ground up. It has a way to go.”

http://bit.ly/MbjxpE

[diggler]

Farmer Andy Stoll looks over drought damaged field corn near his home in Idaville, Indiana, on July 6, 2012.

U.S. Corn Growers Farming in Hell as Midwest Heat Spreads

By Jeff Wilson - Jul 9, 2012

The worst U.S. drought since Ronald Reagan was president is withering the world’s largest corn crop, and the speed of the damage may spur the government to make a record cut in its July estimate for domestic inventories.

Tumbling yields will combine with the greatest-ever global demand to leave U.S. stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2013, at 1.216 billion bushels (30.89 million metric tons), according to the average of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 35 percent below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 12 forecast, implying the biggest reduction since at least 1973. The USDA updates its harvest and inventory estimates July 11.

Crops on July 1 were in the worst condition since 1988, and a Midwest heat wave last week set or tied 1,067 temperature records, government data show. Prices surged 37 percent in three weeks, and Rabobank International said June 28 that corn may rise 9.9 percent more by December to near a record $8 a bushel. The gain is threatening to boost food costs the United Nations says fell 15 percent from a record in February 2011 and feed prices for meat producers including Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD)

“The drought is much worse than last year and approaching the 1988 disaster,” said John Cory, the chief executive officer of Rochester, Indiana-based grain processor Prairie Mills Products LLC. “There are crops that won’t make it. The dairy and livestock industries are going to get hit very hard. People are just beginning to realize the depth of the problem.”

Top Commodities

Corn rallied 18 percent in the month through July 6 on the Chicago Board of Trade to $6.93, trailing only wheat among 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index, which rose 2 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities advanced 4 percent, and the dollar gained 1.3 percent against a basket of six currencies in the period. Treasuries returned 0.5 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows. Corn for December delivery in Chicago extended the rally today, jumping as much as the 40-cent limit to $7.33.

About 53 percent of the Midwest, where farmers harvested 60 percent of last year’s U.S. crop, had moderate to extreme drought conditions as of July 3, the highest since the government-funded U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska, began tracking the data in 2000. In the seven days ended July 6, temperatures in the region averaged as much as 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Soil moisture in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Kentucky is so low that it ranks in the 10th percentile among all other years since 1895.

Fields are parched just as corn plants began to pollinate, a critical period for determining kernel development and final yields. About 48 percent of the crop in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, was in good or excellent condition as of July 1, the lowest for that date since 1988 and down from 77 percent on May 18, government data show.

Yield Losses

The USDA may cut its production forecast by 8.5 percent, the biggest July reduction since a drought in 1988 led the government to cut its estimate by 29 percent, a separate Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts showed. Farmers probably will collect 13.534 billion bushels, compared with the USDA’s June forecast for a record 14.79 billion, based on the average of estimates in the survey.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said July 2 that yields will reach 153.5 bushels an acre, below the USDA estimate for an all-time high of 166.

“Corn yields were falling five bushels a day during the past week” in the driest parts of the Midwest, said Fred Below, a plant biologist at the University of Illinois in Urbana. “You couldn’t choreograph worse weather conditions for pollination. It’s like farming in hell.”

Record Crop

Even with the drought, U.S. production in 2012 is expected to rise 9.5 percent from last year to a record after farmers sowed the most acres since 1937, the survey showed. Higher output would help boost inventories before next year’s harvest, up from what analysts said will be a 16-year low on Sept. 1 of 837 million bushels.

Futures fell 2.2 percent on July 6, the most in two weeks, after the USDA reported a 90 percent drop in export sales in the week ended June 28. U.S. refiners curbed output of corn-based ethanol last week to the lowest since September as gasoline demand weakened, government data show.

Corn’s rally also may stall if Europe’s widening debt crisis and a faltering global economy erode record demand for the grain. The International Monetary Fund will reduce its estimate for growth this year because of weakness in investment, employment and manufacturing in Europe, the U.S., Brazil, India and China, Managing Director Christine Lagarde said July 6.

“The shrinking global economy is the elephant in the room that no one wants to discuss as long as U.S. crops are under siege,” said Dale Durcholz, the senior market analyst for Bloomington, Illinois-based AgriVisor LLC. “Corn demand at $5 is much more robust than when it costs $7.”

Changing Expectations

Corn tumbled into a bear market in September and kept dropping as farmers planted more crops. Robert Manly, the chief financial officer at Smithfield Foods, the largest U.S. pork producer, told analysts on a June 14 conference call that hog- raising costs would “begin to decline starting in the fall.” Corn has surged 41 percent since then, reaching a nine-month high today.

U.S. corn production may drop to 11 billion bushels, the smallest crop in seven years, because the hot, dry weather killed the pollen and rains now may be too late to reverse the damage, according to Cory, the Indiana mill owner and a former investment banker. Prices may reach $9 before demand slows, he said.

World corn use rose to a record every year since 1997 as the expanding economy boosted incomes and the consumption of meat and dairy products from animals raised on the grain. The USDA projected last month a 6.4 percent increase in global demand to 923.39 million tons in the year that starts Sept. 1, the biggest gain in six years. More U.S. output went to ethanol production than livestock feed in 2011 for the first time ever.

Vulnerable Period

While the U.S. harvest is about two months away, the drought reached plants at the most vulnerable period in their growing cycle, said Nick Higgins, a London-based analyst at Rabobank, predicting a 13.488 billion-bushel harvest.

Based on current soil moisture and June temperatures, the drought is probably the worst since 1988, said Joel Widenor, a vice president at the Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland. The private forecaster said July 5 that corn output this year will be 13.52 billion bushels, and that hot, dry weather in the next two weeks may reduce yields further.

The drought may spark a rebound in global food prices this month through October, halting a slide that sent costs in June to the lowest level in 21 months, Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist in Rome at the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization, said July 5.
Base Ingredient

“Corn is key because of its widespread use as a base ingredient in so many foods and for its use in feed for livestock,” said Stanley Crouch, who helps oversee $2 billion of assets as chief investment officer at New York-based Aegis Capital Corp. “We are at the tipping point.”

In May, retail prices of boneless hams, ground beef and cheese in the U.S. were close to all-time highs set earlier this year, while chicken breast jumped more than 12 percent during the first five months of the year, government data show.

“When people look at rising prices for hamburger, butter, eggs and other protein sources from higher corn costs, that’s when more money ends up in the food basket,” said Minneapolis- based Michael Swanson, a senior agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. farm lender. “We were hoping for a break, and we aren’t going to get it.”

[diggler]

Food Price Inflation Fears

By Matt Gillotti, Staff Writer
7/9/2012

With the current extreme weather conditions in the Midwest, fears of food price inflation due to a big surge in US crop prices is not without merit. The recent hot and dry weather conditions are sure to further damage the already struggling corn crops forcing the rise in the price of corn and wheat above the ten percent increase we have already seen in the last week. As we saw just a year or so ago the failed peanut crops due to extreme uncontrollable weather conditions cause a shortage of peanuts affecting everyday products like peanut butter as they nearly doubled in price over the period of a few weeks in which their price still remains today. With the price of gas lower in recent weeks it would not be inconceivable to think that the affect of a poor corn crop for the summer would cause the price of gas to halt its decent and maybe even climb slightly higher then we have seen as of late over its corn based ethanol, how bad the summer corn crop is along with where fuel demand will land could be the greatest deciding factors. As the hopes of replenishing the US inventories which are at near record lows are readily dashed by the current weather extremes plaguing the Midwest we should be taking into consideration the many products affected by a poor producing corn crop as we head to the grocery store. We would only be conceivably more intelligent if we planned for the future of inflated prices of any product we use on a daily basis that contains corn or wheat in some form or other by taking the time now to stock our pantries with as many of these products as one can afford to do so. With the current economic struggles plaguing the great many of us, stocking up on everyday staples we see summer prices reflecting the current inflation fears from poor or failed corn crops may be the best measure we can take at this point to ensure less pressure on ourselves during these already tough economic times. As we have seen with past corn crop production issues the price of wheat or products containing wheat will be affected as the price of wheat runs in tandem with corn due to its ability to be substituted in animal feed in times of higher corn prices. There is more to corn and wheat then corn and wheat themselves, beef, pork, chicken, cereal, flour, gas and the list goes on.

We should expect to see the price of gas to start rising in the coming week’s, compounded by struggling corn crops in the US and newly arisen tensions with Iran.

Recently there has been an incredible flurry of news reporting about food shortages and the pending global food crisis. Everyone who looks at the indicators would agree that this crisis is only likely to worsen. It is estimated that the Australia floods alone could cause a 30% jump in food prices. Although the average shopper already can feel the food inflation, it is difficult to recognize the severity of the looming food shortages. After all, there are still 15 types of colorfully-boxed Cheerios packing the isles, which gives us the illusion of abundance.

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[Southsider2k12]

We need rain, and we need it badly. Tom Skilling isn't too optimistic.

Tom Skilling
4 hours ago
The rain outlook is abysmal. Model kick out an average of just 0.25" in the coming week--just 31% normal. There are hints of increased rainfall in Week #2--but droughts feed on themselves and models over-forecast rainfall in this kind of situtation.